Busier Pacific hurricane season in the forecast

Hurricane Lane toppled a large tree branch onto a Front Street business in 2018. After a few years of relatively slower hurricane seasons, Hawaii weather officials say residents shouldn’t let their guards down with a near- to above-normal Central Pacific hurricane season on the horizon this year. The Maui News / MATTHEW THAYER photo

Cautioning against complacency after “very quiet” hurricane seasons the past few years, a top Hawaii weather official advised residents to prepare for the 50 percent chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity during the upcoming Central Pacific hurricane season.

There could be four to seven tropical cyclones, including tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes, in the Central Pacific during the hurricane season that begins Thursday and runs through Nov. 30, said Christopher Brenchley, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service, Central Pacific Hurricane Center on Oahu.

The figures are not a forecast of hurricanes making landfall in the state, but are forecasts on a “larger scale prediction,” said Brenchley, who spoke at a news conference on Oahu Thursday morning to unveil the forecast of a near- or above-normal hurricane season.

“The last few hurricane seasons have been pretty quiet around Hawaii, luring some folks to let their guard down. Now it’s looking like this season will be more active than past several years,” Brenchley said in a news release. “It’s more important than ever to review your emergency plan and supply kit now, so you will be prepared for the next hurricane threat.”

Both of the 2022 and 2021 hurricane seasons saw just one tropical cyclone apiece making its way into the Central Pacific. There were two in 2020, four in 2019 and six in 2018. The highest number of tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific since 1970 was in 2015 where there were 16, according to data from NOAA.

Brenchley reminded people that it “only takes impacts from one” hurricane to cause major damage. He also pointed to this week’s Typhoon Mawar in Guam, where the storm caused flooding at the island’s international airport, flipped vehicles, ripped roofs and shredded trees.

Tropical cyclones not only cause flooding but pose other hazardous weather conditions. In 2018, Hurricane Lane brought fierce wind gusts to Maui of 70 miles per hour, which helped spread a wildfire above Lahaina that burned homes, forced evacuations and closed down parts of Honoapiilani Highway.

That year, the hurricane outlook indicated equal chances of an above-normal and near-normal hurricane seasons at 40 percent each, and a 20-percent chance of a below-normal season.

In 2018, three to six tropical cyclones were predicted for the Pacific hurricane basin, a little less than what is predicted for this year.

For 2023, there is a 15 percent chance for a below-normal hurricane season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 50 percent chance of an above-normal season.

Brenchley explained at the news conference that El Nino conditions may set in this hurricane season and the ocean is already getting warmer.

He added that this typically correlates “with higher-than-average tropical cyclone activity in the Central Pacific. This is the big factor in the season’s outlook for 2023.”

Gov. Josh Green, who also attended the news conference as he proclaimed this week Hurricane Preparedness Week in Hawaii, encouraged residents to be prepared by knowing where to go in times of an emergency and having enough food and medication.

He also said that since the pandemic, there may not be enough medical staff to provide all of the care that may be needed if a weather emergency occurs, so it is important “to practice good prevention.”

“We will do what is necessary professionally to keep people safe but we need that extra support from you to be ready,” Green added.

Laura Kay Rand, Hawai’i Foodbank vice president and chief impact officer, also urged the public to get stocked up on water and food to last 14 days.

She acknowledged that for some, money is tight and families cannot look beyond today or even next week. So, for the budget conscious, she suggested looking for sales on food items that they normally eat and just picking one more item to help stock up. Each time there is a sale, they should continue the practice of picking up one extra item.

She also recommended that families who need assistance should reach out for help now, whether through friends or family.

Those who have the means to help others should reach out to their neighbors, friends and family, including the elderly, who may need assistance in preparing an emergency supply of food or emergency items.

Families should plan ahead not only for food and water but also for necessary supplies and medicine. Rand said that as soon as she is able to get refills on her prescription, she does so immediately.

The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency also recommends:

• Having an emergency preparedness kit with enough food and water for at least 14 days. Other essential items include a battery-operated radio to receive emergency communications, flashlights and essential medications.

• Having a whistle on hand if you are trapped by debris after a storm.

• Keeping items such as hand sanitizer, sanitary wipes, toilet paper and bags to hold waste, in order to keep things clean.

• Having a personal/family emergency plan.

• Keeping together personal documents including medical documents, wills, passports and personal identification.

* Melissa Tanji can be reached at mtanji@mauinews.com.

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